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Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics.
Fazlhashemi, Ehsan Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics.
Anledningen till dessa oddsförändringar varierar men inom spelmarknaden har oddsförändring samma betydelse som riskhantering.
Spelbolagen analyserar hur hela marknaden sätter odds och inget bolag vill utsätta sig för större risk än de andra i onödan.
Därför fungerar en oddsjustering från ett etablerat bolag som startskottet i en kedjereaktion av oddsjusteringar.
Examensarbetets syfte har varit att på uppdrag från Svenska Spel undersöka hur precisa Bolag A, Bolag B och Bolag C är i sina stängningsodds.
Med stängningsodds syftas det på oddset företaget erbjuder just före matchstart.
Inledningsvis för att kartlägga eventuella oddsintervall där det kan råda bristande riskhantering undersöks utfallet för varje spel 1X2 med det faktiska utfallet.
Fortsättningsvis väljs ett Bolag ut för vidare analys.
De viktigaste aspekterna i valet av företag är riskhanteringsförmåga samt företagets policy när det kommer till spelare som vinner mycket över en längre tid.
För att kunna fastslå eventuella brister i riskhanteringen och för att undersöka huruvida det varit slumpen som varit avgörande så utförs en backtesting på det utvalda företaget.
Slutligen utvecklas en matematisk modell för att förutspå utfallet i matcher beroende av målskillnader som kan fungera som ytterligare ett verktyg för Svenska Spel.
Resultatet av backtestingen var inte entydigt.
I vissa oddsintervall kunde det fastslås att det fanns en brist i riskhanteringen och oddssättningen medan i andra kunde det lika väl ha varit slumpen som varit avgörande.
Den matematiska modellen fungerar och beroende på spelstrategi går det att slå marknaden.
Likadant kan denna matematiska modell fungera som indikator för spelbolagen att se över sina odds i de utfall där spelarna gör en positiv avkastning.
Den matematiska modellen bygger endast på två års data hämtad från engelska Premier League.
Resultatet hade kunnat förstärkas med ytterligare två års data.
Generellt så kan tillgång till data ses som en begränsning då det endast funnits tillgång till epl betting strategy från de senaste fyra åren.
Det som kan argumentera för att epl betting strategy data från de senaste fyra åren är sportens utveckling.
Fotbollen utvecklas i högt takt likaså check this out spelmarknaden det.
Tillgång till mer data garanterar inte ett bättre resultat.
From the time that the odds are first available until the referee blows the whistle for kick off the odds will have been adjusted at least once but in some cases multiple times.
In the betting market odds adjustment has the same meaning as risk management and the reasons for these adjustments varies.
The betting companies analyze the entire betting market while setting odds because no one wants to expose themselves for a higher risk that others.
That is why an odds adjustment from a well-known epl betting strategy sets off a chain reaction of several odds adjustments.
Closing odds is the odds a company offers right before kick off.
To begin with the potential odds intervals where there could have been a potential lack of risk management had to be found.
To find these intervals we examine every type of bet Win, loose and draw with the actual outcome.
The chosen company had to fit two key aspects.
The first aspect was that they had an overall excellent risk management while the second was their legal policy towards gamblers who won repeatedly over time.
To be able to establish inadequate risk management there had to be some mathematical ground to ensure the outcome.
Thus, a backtesting was performed on the chosen company to further epl betting strategy the conclusion of inadequate risk management or if it was just luck that had been the decisive factor.
To conclude the master thesis a tool was developed so that the outcome of future games could be mathematically predicted depending epl betting strategy goal difference.
The result of backtesting was not clear.
A lack of risk management could be established in some odds intervals while in other odds intervals luck could have been the decisive factor.
The mathematical model works and depending on chosen game strategy it is possible to beat the market.
At the same time the model can serve as an indicator for betting companies to review their odds in intervals where the player makes a positive return.
The mathematical model is based on two years data taken from the English Premier League.
The result epl betting strategy have been more conclusive with two additional years of data.
A general limitation in this project has been the access of historical data.
What may argue against usage of data from beyond the past four years is the rapid ongoing development of the sport.
Football is developing rapidly and with it the betting market as well.
With this said access to more historical data does not guarantee better results.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages2018.
Examiners Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics.
It may include epl betting strategy previous versions that are now no longer available.

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